delving-into-a-nikita-kucherov-extension

Author: Coach Rox

Posted on: July 22, 2026

Raw Charge

The NHL draft is over. Free agent frenzy is over. For the most part the Tampa Bay Lightning have put their 2026-27 roster together. So, that means everything is crossed off of Julien BriseBois’ to-do list, right? Kind of. There is one highlighted item left on that list, and while it might not be urgent, getting it done sooner than later will prevent a lot of stress down the road. What is that item that is highlighted, underlined, circled, and written in bold?

Getting an extension done for Nikita Kucherov.

The best player in franchise history is officially on the clock for an extension. As of July 1, he was eligible to sign a new deal as he entered the final year of the 8-year, $76 million that he signed back in July of 2018. That means we are three weeks into the “Why haven’t the Lightning signed Nikita Kucherov?” discourse. Nikita-geddon? Kuch-alypse? Well, sports fans always need something to be on the edge of panic about, right?

Still, it begs the question, why haven’t the Lightning signed him yet? Surely, Mr. BriseBois learned from the Steven Stamkos saga that putting off signing a franchise icon till the last minute could lead to that icon wearing a mustard yellow sweater instead of Lightning blue. The good news is that it does seem that the two sides have had some exploratory discussions, which, is already one step ahead of where they were with Stamkos. In his post July 1 <a href="https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20202021&seasonTo=20222023&gameType=2&sort=points,goals,assists&page=0&pageSize=50">discussion with the media</a>, the Lightning general manager was asked about the status of talks with Kucherov and his agent, Dan Milstein. Per Benjamin Pierce, here is what he had to say,

<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow"> “I’ll reiterate that we would like Nikita to stay here, he would like to stay here,” BriseBois said, adding that this year’s busy trade market around the league and free agency have kept him busy.

That doesn’t mean the Lightning aren’t working toward a Kucherov extension. It remains a top priority and the intention of the franchise to keep him in Tampa, and they’ve been in talks with his agent, Dan Milstein.

“We’ve had chats,” BriseBois said of re-upping Kucherov.

“Just because there wasn’t a pressing deadline to accomplish something versus these free agents–if you don’t sign them today, they’re gone.” </blockquote> </blockquote>

Kucherov has, as is typical, been silent on the topic. When asked about it at his exit interview he responded with, “You just gotta ask Julien, I’m not even thinking about it.”

Chances are he’s thought about it a little since then as he’s returned to the ice and began his usual off-season workouts. Still, there is a better chance that he is leaving the actual discussions up to his agent and general manager. There is a sense that he does enjoy playing in Tampa Bay, and despite their recent postseason struggles, it is a franchise that can best afford him a run at a third Stanley Cup. The big question is, how do they afford him?

Honestly, it’s not an easy question to answer. There aren’t a ton of players in his situation that have been free agents. His next deal will kick in with him entering his age 34 season. While the Lightning have some experience signing players in their mid-30s, none have really put up the production he has. Not only have the Lightning not really dealt with a player like this, the rest of the league hasn’t either. Finding a player in a comparable situation as Nikita Kucherov is not easy.

Usually at 34, a top-tier player is still locked into a longer term deal that they signed at 29 or 30 years old. They aren’t exiting that deal for a few more seasons. And if they are, they aren’t producing like Nikita Kucherov has over the last few seasons. In his age 32 season (last year), Kucherov put up 130 points. The only three players that have cracked the 100 point barrier at that age since the 2007-08 season are Kucherov, Mark Scheifele (103 points last season), and Erik Karlsson (101 points in 2022-23).

Scheifele and Karlsson were both locked into long-term contracts when they put up those seasons, so it’s kind of hard to use them as comparisons for what Kucherov should sign for in his next deal. Add to it that Kucherov is coming off of a season where he is the oldest player to win the Hart Trophy since Dominik Hasek won it at age 32 back in the 1996-97 season (Hasek also won it as a 33-year-old the following year). The last forward to win the Hart at age 32 – Jean Beliveau for the 1963-64 season.

So, what is Nikita Kucherov’s value? Normally, by the age of 33 or 34, the unbeatable effects of time have started to take hold. Yet, that doesn’t seem to be the case with Kycherov. Since his age 30 season he’s put up 395 points. Since 2007-08, the only other player to crack 300 points in their age 30-32 seasons is Artemi Panarin with exactly 300. Scheifele is next with 262 followed by Blake Wheeler at 256. That’s a far cry from what Kucherov has done over the past three seasons.

That is all well and good, but the next contract isn’t about what he’s done, but what is he going to do. Will he slow down? Will he be 70 or 80% of the player he is now. If he is, he’ll still be pretty good. Since 07-08 [ed. note – we’re using those years because it’s as far back as Evolving Hockey goes, and they have the best stats by age sorting, and it’s a good barometer for the modern NHL game] no 34-year-old has put up 100 points in a season. The highest point total – Marty St. Louis in 09-10 when he scored 94 points for the Bolts. Is there any reason to think that Kucherov will still be churning out 100-point efforts in two seasons? No, not really, especially with the cast of productive characters the Lightning have around him.

It seems a four-year deal would be reasonable for both Kucherov and the Lightning. That would carry him to age 37 and through the 2030-31 season, the same season that sees the end of Jake Guentzel’s, Brandon Hagel’s, Anthony Cirelli’s, Yanni Gourde’s, JJ Moser’s, and Erik Cernak’s deals (oh yeah, Jeffrey Veal’s as well). There is a nice symmetry there (especially if Andrei Vasilevskiy signs a three-year extension when he is eligible next summer).

What could the Lightning expect out of Kucherov for those four years. The good thing is that there are a few recent examples. Sidney Crosby has put up 362 points in 313 games from age 34 to 37. Anze Kopitar had 278 in 325 games while Alex Ovechkin had 272 in 274 games (with 147 goals). Old friend Marty St. Louis recorded 327 points in 289 games from 2009 to 2013. Kucherov is that level of player so it’s not unreasonable to think he could put up similar, if not better numbers.

Those stats are all well and good, but doesn’t answer the question. What kind of deal is Nikita Kucherov going to sign for. In a NHL where Leo Carlsson is making $18.5 million a year and Kirill Kaprizov is making $17 million, how much should Kucherov make? In a just and fair world (i.e. non-salary cap) he should probably be making somewhere in the $25 million a year realm. However, that’s not the world that exists.

There is a cap, and there are considerations that have to be made. AFP Analytics projects him to make $12 million on a two-year contract. If that is what he is looking for, sign the deal. Do it today, in fact, get a time turner, go back and do it yesterday. Nikita Kucherov at $12 million a season is absolutely a below market deal.

It’s always hard to know where these projections come from. Again, which player does one use to compare to Kucherov? Performance-wise, Crosby would be a pretty close comparable, but it’s hard to argue he took fair market value when he signed his extension in 2024. The two-year, $8.7 million deal was at 9.1% of the cap. Yes, he was older (37) but he was productive. Signing such a team-friendly, short-term deal probably isn’t in the cards.

It seems that the projection most resembles the contract Panarin signed with L.A. earlier this year (2 years, $11 million AAV that represents 10.58% of the current salary cap). Should the cap go up to $113.5 million as projected next season, an equivalent deal would be about $12.01 million per season for Kucherov.

Panarin has aged gracefully in his career, but it’s been a long time since he’s been in the Hart Trophy conversation. Honestly, the closest comparison for Kucherov might be the deal his other countryman, Alex Ovechkin, signed back in 2021. Coming off of his massive 13-year deal, The Gr8 One signed a five-year extension with a $9.5 million AAV. At that time, that represented 11.66% of the salary cap. Next year’s equivalent would be $13.23 million.

Can the Lightning afford a $13 million cap hit? Yes, they can. As of right now they are projected to have about $82.825 wrapped up in cap hits next season. Even without the bump in cap space, they could fit the $13 million in and have room to work. Why is that important? Cap-tagging. Essentially, even though the contract won’t go into effect until next season, the Lightning can’t sign a contract that would take them over the current salary cap. It was something that they had to play around with a few seasons ago when Mr. BriseBois was handing out long-term deals like toothbrushes at a dentist’s office, but the Lightning should be fine.

Would Kucherov accept a deal in the $13 million range? That’s debatable. Maybe prior to all of the nonsense that has gone on over the last 12 months, starting with Kaprizov’s extension and going through the Carlsson offer sheet drama. On the open market, it wouldn’t be surprising if Kucherov could demand $18 or $19 million on a short-term deal. But would it be the right fit?

With taxes and cost of living, $13 million in Tampa is probably closer to $15 or $16 million in New York or California. It still fits within the Lightning’s budget, so they wouldn’t have to jettison any of their top players in order to fit him into the line-up, plus JBB would still have wiggle room to keep improving the team. Signing Kucherov to a higher-end deal may handicap another franchise and leave him with less talent to play with. He seems to like playing in Tampa. He knows his teammates here, where they like the puck, what they will do in the offensive zone. Adjusting to an entirely new set of teammates would take some time. Plus, his good buddy Vasy plays here. That always help.

Still, he has pride, right? While it’s safe to assume he wants to win another Stanley Cup more than anything else, he also wants to be recognized as one of the best in the league. While Ted Lindsey Awards and Hart Trophies are part of that, so is being one of the top-paid players in the league. Taking a team-friendly deal is all well and good, but in the end, there is also some respect with the paycheck. So, it’s not hard to see that $13 million get bumped up to $15 million. Now, with taxes and cost of living factored in, he’s in the same ballpark as Kaprizov, Carlsson, Connor Bedard, and Leon Draisaitl.

That seems to feel right. So, our prediction – 4 years, $14.5 million per season. If Kucherov goes the Crosby route, a six-year, $9.67 million AAV deal basically extends what he is making now and gives the Lightning a tremendous amount of flexibility going forward. Yes, it’s a long commitment, and probably commits Kucherov to a Lightning line-up that is past it’s Stanley Cup window, but if he’s still doing Kucherov-things, perhaps he agrees to a trade for those last two seasons.

Being an absolute unicorn of a player makes this a difficult task for both sides. No matter what he signs for, there is going to be criticism for it being too much or too long. The question Lightning fans should ask themselves is, is an extra million or an extra year worth seeing Kucherov in a different uniform in 2027?

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