Raw Charge
Summary
While Tampa Bay Lightning fans grapple with one future hall-of-famer’s future with the team, why not throw another log on the fire and speculate about how much longer another one will be with the organization? More and more signs point to Nikita Kucherov winding down the Lightning portion of his NHL career once his contract expires this summer. Where he ends up on July 1 of 2027 is still up in the air, but that date also has significance for one of his teammates, Andrei Vasilevskiy. That would mark the start of the final year of his current contract, and also the first day he is eligible to sign an extension. Based on the recent negotiations between Julien BriseBois and two other Lightning legends in Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, Vasilevskiy shouldn’t expect daily phone calls from his general manager once that date rolls around, but is it too early to start worrying about how the Bolts are going to handle his contract? Probably. The good news is that it doesn’t seem like the current rough patch the organization is going through off the ice in regard to the Kucherov situation has affected Vasilevskiy’s intent to stay with the team. In an interview with Jeff Marek and David Pagnotta for the DFO Insider podcast , Dan Milstein, who reps both Kucherov and Vasilevskiy, briefly talked about the star goaltender (comments start at about the 18:37 mark). “Sometimes you fight with the person [opposing general managers], and then five seconds later you pick up the phone and you talk about a different client. At this point in time, Andrei is extremely happy. Just like Nikita Kucherov pre this summer, he wishes to finish his career as a Tampa Bay Lightning player. The goal is to play 1,000 games for the Tampa Bay Lightning. And I can only hope, because it’s not just up to us, finishes his hall of fame career with one team.” So, the good news is that, at this point, things look good. Now, Milstein did have to make a reference that Kucherov also wanted to stay before things went “horribly wrong, probably beyond repair at this time” with those negotiations, so there is always room for things to blow up. The agent, who also represents Ilya Mikheyev, acknowledges that he has a good relationship with Mr. BriseBois despite everything that is going on right now, so the line of communication should stay open moving forward. The interesting part is that Milstein mentions the 1,000 game mark as a goal for Vasilevskiy. That is a lot of games for a goaltender. Heading into Thursday’s game with the Chicago Blackhawks, the 32-year-old netminder has appeared in 609 regular season games, making 599 starts. This is his 13th season in the NHL and he’s just a hair over 60% of the way to a mark that has been reached by only a handful of goaltenders in history. Only one has done it with a single franchise. Can you guess? We’ll give you a second. Yup, it’s Martin Brodeur. The hall-of-famer played in 1,259 games for the New Jersey Devils over his 22-year career. Yet, Vasilevskiy could do something that even the great Brodeur didn’t do. If Vasilevskiy does finish his entire run of play with the Lightning, he can be the only goaltender to play in 1,000 games and never wear the uniform of another team. Who else remembers the infamous seven-game stretch with the St. Louis Blues in 2014-15 that was Brodeur’s official end in the NHL? O-Pee-Chee does. The three other members of the 1,000 games played club also bounced around a bit in their time in the league. Marc-Andre Fleury is second in all-time games played with 1,051. Roberto Luongo is third at 1,044 while Patrick Roy made it into 1,029. Will anyone join that club before Vasilevskiy? It’s hard to tell. He’s currently fifth among active goaltenders in games played. Jonathan Quick is at 829, and all but retired. Next is Sergei Bobrovsky at 817 and will be knocking on the door if he stays healthy throughout his new three-year deal in Toronto. Connor Hellebuyck is probably the best bet. The 33-year-old is at 628 and has five years left on his current deal. There is no reason to believe, unless he holds out again, that he won’t get close. Sandwiched between Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy is Semyon Varlamov at 625. Health has been a concern as he missed all of last season and has only appeared in four games this season, so there is a chance Vasy can pass him on the list. If Vasilevskiy wants to get to 1,000 games, it’s going to take a pretty long extension to get there. If he gets into his usual 60 games this season, he’ll finish with 658, leaving him 342 to go. Divide that by 60 games and it’ll take almost six seasons for the former first-round pick to hit the magic number, at which time he’ll be a spry 38-years-old. Any type of injury or work stoppage would push that number further out. There is no reason to believe he can’t still be productive as he ages. He is religiously dedicated to staying in shape, and hasn’t shown any lingering effects from the back injury he suffered a couple of seasons ago. As he’s aged, he’s relied more on his positioning and knowledge of the game than the pure athleticism that he demonstrated as a young netminder. Brodeur was winning Vezina’s well into his mid-thirties while Roy was a finalist in his final season at age 37. Vasilevskiy is in their class as a goaltender and should have a similar arc to the second half of his career. The big question will likely revolve around the financial aspect, as it so often does. What sort of future does Julien BriseBois see for his team, and how much of the salary cap is he willing to use on Vasilevskiy? While salaries for skaters have exploded recently, the market hasn’t been the same for goaltenders. In fact, the only current deal that exceeds Vasilevskiy’s $9.5 million AAV is Igor Shesterkins at $11.57 million. Part of that reason is that most of the elite netminders have been locked up in long-term deals over the past two summers where the cap has gone up dramatically. Right now there really isn’t a goaltender set to hit free agency next summer that is going to dramatically move the needle for goaltenders. Carter Hart, Jordan Binnington, Daniil Tarasov, and (flips a coin) Philip Grubauer are likely to be the biggest names on the market and it’s unlikely any of those players will command a $10 million plus AAV. There is one intriguing restricted free agent that could be in line for a big raise, and that is Jesper Wallstedt in Minnesota. The 23-year-old has emerged as the number one goalie on a Stanley Cup-contending team and should see a substantial raise over the $2.2 million AAV his current deal carriers. So, in theory Vasilevskiy could be the first elite goaltender to benefit from the substantial bump in the salary cap over the last few seasons. Will he look to get his share of it on the open market, or will he get the respect he has earned and find a deal that fits in with his general manager’s future?